MRO Demand Trends by Aircraft Type: What Airlines and MRO Providers Must Know for the Future

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Overview

The aviation industry is entering one of the busiest decades for Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) services. As fleets expand, deliveries are delayed, and aircraft age in service longer than expected, the demand for maintenance continues to rise. But this growth is not uniform—MRO demand trends differ significantly by aircraft type. Narrow-body aircraft are consuming more resources than ever, wide-bodies are undergoing complex base checks, and military fleets are facing soaring costs due to advanced fighters and drones.

Understanding these dynamics is crucial for airlines, MRO providers, and equipment suppliers to anticipate where the market is heading and how to prepare.

Chapter 1 – Narrow-Body Aircraft MRO Demand: The Core of MRO Growth

Narrow-body aircraft are the workhorses of global fleets. With airlines relying heavily on single-aisle jets for short- and medium-haul routes, these aircraft naturally dominate MRO demand. In 2024, narrow-bodies represented the largest share of global MRO revenue, and analysts expect this trend to continue until at least 2035.

Two main factors drive this:

High utilization rates – Narrow-bodies fly more cycles daily, meaning more frequent maintenance.
Delayed new deliveries – Production bottlenecks have forced airlines to keep older jets in service longer, raising demand for engine overhauls and line checks.

According to Oliver Wyman, the global fleet will expand at a 2.8% annual growth rate from 2025–2035, with narrow-bodies fueling most of this increase. That translates into sustained, and sometimes overwhelming, demand for engine and component support.

Chapter 2 – Wide-Bodies and Regional Aircraft: Steady but Secondary

Wide-body aircraft represent a smaller share of overall fleets, but they are strategically vital for international travel. Their MRO demand is characterized by heavy base checks and engine overhauls that are both time- and cost-intensive.

Regional aircraft, on the other hand, play a growing role in emerging markets where connectivity is expanding to smaller cities. While their maintenance costs are lower compared to wide-bodies, the sheer number of these aircraft across Asia-Pacific and Africa means they will contribute steadily to MRO demand.

The balance is clear: narrow-bodies dominate the market in volume, but wide-bodies and regional jets remain essential for long-haul networks and regional connectivity.

Table 1 – Commercial Aircraft MRO Market (USD Billions)

Year	Market Value	Notes
2024	90.85	Narrow-bodies dominant
2026	Peak demand forecast	Engine bottlenecks
2030	120.96	Demand resurges
2035	151.64	Steady growth

(Sources: Grandview Research, Oliver Wyman, Research Nester)

Chapter 3 – Engines at the Heart of the MRO Demand

No part of an aircraft consumes more maintenance dollars than its engines. In 2024, engine services accounted for more than 40% of global MRO spend. This share is expected to remain high because of two opposing trends:

New-generation engines such as LEAP and GTF are technologically advanced but require longer shop visits—up to 150% longer than pre-pandemic levels.
Older engines remain in service longer, as delivery delays force airlines to extend fleet lifespans.

The engine MRO market was worth USD 23.5 billion in 2023 and is forecasted to reach USD 34.5 billion by 2030, a steady growth rate of nearly 5% per year. For narrow-body operators in particular, engine maintenance is becoming a critical bottleneck, often keeping aircraft grounded longer than planned.

Table 2 – Engine MRO Market Outlook

Segment	2023 (USD Bn)	2030 (USD Bn)	CAGR
Engine MRO Total	23.5	34.5	~4.8%
Fixed-Wing Share	73.5%	75%+	Stable
Narrow-Body Engines	Highest demand	Capacity constrained	–

(Sources: Market Research Future, Grandview Research, Bain)

Chapter 4 – Military Aircraft: The Rising Cost of Complexity

Commercial MRO demand is only half the story. The global military fleet is projected to grow from 45,400 aircraft in 2025 to more than 52,200 by 2035. However, the real driver of military MRO spending isn’t fleet size—it’s fleet complexity.

Aircraft like the F-35 fighter jet come with advanced stealth coatings, avionics, and propulsion systems that require specialized and costly maintenance. By 2035, the F-35 alone is expected to account for 9.5% of all global military MRO spending.

This trend places enormous strain on defense budgets and creates new opportunities for specialized MRO providers that can handle next-generation technologies.

Table 3 – Regional MRO Growth Forecasts

Region	CAGR (%)	Notes
India	10.8	Airbus-led fleet expansion
Middle East	5.0	Narrow-body & wide-body hubs
Asia-Pacific	4.0	Strong domestic fleet growth
Global Avg.	4.7	Engines remain priority

Chapter 5 – UAVs: The New Frontier in Maintenance

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are no longer experimental—they are central to modern defense strategies. In 2024, the global fleet of Group 4 and 5 drones stood at about 1,400 units. By 2035, that number is expected to reach 3,460 UAVs, with drones making up 15% of global military flying hours.

Unlike traditional aircraft, UAVs rely heavily on sensor systems, communications equipment, and high-performance batteries—all of which require new types of maintenance expertise. This creates a unique growth segment within the military MRO market, one that few providers are fully prepared to serve.

Chapter 6 – Regional Perspectives: India, Middle East, and Asia-Pacific

The MRO market is not growing equally across the globe. Some regions are becoming hotspots for expansion:

India has the fastest projected growth, with a 10.8% CAGR. New facilities in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha are designed to position India as a South Asian MRO hub.
The Middle East follows with ~5% annual growth. Major carriers like Emirates and Qatar Airways are expanding fleets, while governments are investing in local MRO capacity.
Asia-Pacific is expected to grow at about 4% annually, driven by low-cost carriers and domestic connectivity. Countries like Malaysia and Indonesia are scaling up maintenance hubs, while Australia is positioning itself as a regional leader.

These regional dynamics mean airlines and suppliers in the GCC and APAC must prepare for localized demand surges.

Chapter 7 – Preparing for Capacity Constraints

Across both commercial and military sectors, the same warning emerges: capacity will be the greatest challenge in the MRO industry. By 2026, engine MRO demand will exceed shop capacity worldwide, leading to longer downtimes and higher costs. Another surge is expected around 2030 as fleets continue to expand.

For airlines, this means planning maintenance windows more carefully and adopting predictive maintenance technologies to maximize uptime. For MRO providers, it means investing in hangar space, engine shops, and digital solutions. And for equipment suppliers like AVA AERO, it creates an urgent need to provide ground support equipment—from hydraulic test stands to nitrogen generators—that helps maintenance teams handle increased workloads efficiently.

Final Word

The next decade will redefine the MRO landscape. Narrow-bodies will dominate demand, engines will remain the primary cost driver, and military fleets will challenge budgets with advanced technologies and UAV growth. At the same time, regions like India and the Middle East are emerging as new centers of MRO excellence.

For industry leaders, the message is clear: the demand will be there—but only those prepared with the right infrastructure, partnerships, and technology will capture it.

P.S. Interesting Facts About MRO Demand Trends by Aircraft Type

Engines eat the budget – More than 40% of all MRO spending goes into engines, making them the single largest cost driver in the industry.
Narrow-bodies dominate – By 2030, narrow-body aircraft will still account for the highest share of global MRO revenue, thanks to their heavy daily utilization.
Maintenance is slowing down – New-generation engines (like LEAP and GTF) take 150% longer to repair than older models, creating capacity bottlenecks worldwide.
F-35 is a budget magnet – This single fighter jet will consume 9.5% of all global military MRO spending by 2035.
Drone fleets are doubling – Large UAVs will increase from 1,400 in 2024 to 3,460 in 2035, requiring new MRO expertise in sensors and avionics.
Regional surprises – India is the fastest-growing MRO market (10.8% CAGR), while the Middle East is positioning itself as a global hub with ~5% annual growth.
Old planes won’t die – Airlines are keeping aircraft longer due to delivery delays, which is boosting demand for maintenance on legacy fleets.
Billions at stake – The global MRO market is projected to reach USD 151 billion by 2035, up from about USD 90 billion in 2024.